AfDB reviews Africa’s economy growth rate forecast in 2024 to 3.8%


The African Development Bank (AfDB) has reduced Africa’s economic growth rate projection from 4.3 per cent to 3.8 per cent in 2024.

The apex development bank in the continent disclosed this in its latest revised economic outlook for the period.

Earlier in May, this year, the bank projected the African economy to grow by 4.0 per cent and 4.3 per cent, respectively, in 2023 and 2024.

However, the latest forecast indicated that the African economy expanded by 3.4 per cent in 2023 and 3.8 per cent in 2024.

Despite the downward revision, economic growth in Africa is still above the global average and that of any economic region except Asia.

The bank explained that the downward forecast in GDP growth for the continent is predicated upon slow post-COVID-19 recovery, climate change shocks, political instability, weak global growth and high-interest rates.

It mentioned the recent spate of coups in Africa, the renewed Israel-Palestine conflict and the lingering Russia-Ukraine war as highlights of geopolitical risk stifling growth in the continent.

“The downward revision is attributed to multiple factors – the scarring long-term effects of COVID-19, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, climate shocks, a slowdown in the global economy, and constrained fiscal space to respond to shocks and preserve economic activity adequately.

“Across country groupings, for Africa’s tourism-dependent countries, growth is projected to decline from 9.3 per cent in 2022 to 5.9 per cent in 2023 before moderating to 4.1 per cent in 2024. Oil-exporting countries are expected to see a marginal decline from 4.4 per cent in 2022 to a projected 3.7 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

“Growth in non-resource-intensive economies is projected to rise to 4.8 per cent in 2023, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point upward revision from 2022, and to rise further to 5.3 per cent in 2024”, the report stated.

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